The FIFA World Cup is a stage where legends are born, dreams are shattered, and history is rewritten. While the spotlight often shines on football’s elite—Brazil, bet World Cup Chile Germany, France, Argentina—the tournament’s true magic lies in its unpredictability. Every edition brings with it a handful of underdogs who defy expectations, stun giants, and etch their names into football folklore. As the 2026 World Cup approaches, hosted across the USA, Canada, and Mexico, the expanded 48-team format promises even more room for surprises. Predicting these shockers isn’t just a game of chance—it’s a study in momentum, mentality, and the subtle cracks in the armor of football’s titans.
Underdogs thrive in the world Cup because the tournament compresses time and magnifies pressure. Unlike club football, where consistency over months determines success, the world Cup is a sprint. A single moment—a missed penalty, a red card, a tactical misstep—can flip the narrative. Smaller nations, often underestimated, come in with nothing to lose and everything to prove. Their hunger, unity, and tactical discipline can overwhelm more talented but complacent opponents.
Take Morocco’s stunning run in 2022. They didn’t just beat Spain and Portugal—they outplayed them. Their success wasn’t a fluke; it was the result of disciplined defending, rapid counterattacks, and a squad that believed in itself. Similarly, Croatia’s back-to-back deep runs in 2018 and 2022 showcased how a well-organized team with a few world-class players can punch far above its weight. These examples are not anomalies—they’re blueprints.
Looking ahead to 2026, several nations are poised to play the role of disruptor. Albania, for instance, has quietly built a competitive squad with players featuring in Europe’s top leagues. Their recent qualification for the European Championships, despite being placed in a group with Italy, Spain, and Croatia, demonstrated their resilience and tactical maturity. With a younger generation hungry for recognition, Albania could be a surprise package if they qualify.
From Africa, Gabon is another team worth watching. Historically overshadowed by continental heavyweights like Nigeria and Senegal, Gabon has shown promise in recent qualifiers. With players like Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang still capable of turning games and a growing pool of talent, they could emerge as a dark horse in the expanded format. The increased number of slots for African teams means more representation—and more chances for upsets.
Asia’s rising contender is Jordan. Often overlooked in favor of Iran, Japan, or South Korea, Jordan has made significant strides in recent years. Their tactical discipline and physicality make them a tough opponent, especially in tightly contested group matches. If they secure qualification, they could be the team that throws a wrench into a group dominated by traditional powers.
The expanded format itself is a catalyst for chaos. With more teams and more matches, the margin for error shrinks. Traditional giants can no longer coast through the group stages. A single draw or loss against a perceived minnow could derail their campaign. This structural shift increases the probability of shock results, especially in early rounds where complacency is most dangerous.
Betting markets have started to reflect this volatility. While favorites like Brazil, France, and England dominate the odds boards, teams like Belgium, Netherlands, and Portugal are considered high-value underdogs. Belgium, for instance, despite its golden generation aging, still boasts Kevin De Bruyne and a relatively easy group path. Their odds have shortened due to their knockout stage potential. The netherlands, with a mix of youth and experience, is another team that could surprise, especially if their young stars hit form at the right time3.
Portugal’s situation is more complex. Cristiano Ronaldo’s twilight years have brought emotional weight to the squad, and while his form has dipped, the team’s unity and depth could carry them further than expected. However, their vulnerability in high-pressure matches and the challenge of adapting to North american conditions could be stumbling blocks.
Predicting upsets also involves identifying vulnerabilities in the favorites. Germany, for example, has struggled with consistency and squad cohesion in recent tournaments. Spain, while technically gifted, often lacks cutting edge in front of goal. England, despite its talent pool, has a history of faltering under pressure. These cracks can be exploited by disciplined, fearless underdogs.
The psychological aspect cannot be overstated. Underdogs often play with a freedom that favorites lack. The absence of expectation liberates them, allowing for bold tactics and relentless energy. Meanwhile, giants carry the weight of history, media scrutiny, and fan pressure. When things go wrong, panic sets in. Underdogs who sense this vulnerability can strike with devastating effect.
Technology and data analytics have also leveled the playing field. Smaller nations now have access to scouting tools, performance metrics, and tactical simulations that were once exclusive to elite teams. Coaches can tailor game plans to exploit specific weaknesses, and players are better prepared mentally and physically. The gap is narrowing—not in talent, but in preparation.
Ultimately, predicting World Cup shockers is about embracing the tournament’s essence. It’s about recognizing that football, at its core, is a game of moments. And in the world Cup, those moments belong to the brave. Whether it’s a last-minute goal, a heroic save, or a tactical masterclass, the underdogs will always have their chance. The question is: who will seize it? As fans, analysts, and bettors gear up for 2026, it’s worth remembering that the next Morocco, Croatia, or South Korea is already preparing. They’re studying, training, dreaming. And when the whistle blows, they won’t just be there to participate-they’ll be there to shock the world.